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Showing posts from October, 2025

Major Periods of Notable Pullbacks in Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 index, launched in 1996, has seen numerous pullbacks—temporary declines from recent highs—amid global events, domestic policies, and economic shifts. "Notable" pullbacks here refer to corrections of 10% or more, with a focus on significant ones exceeding 20% (often classified as bear markets). These occur roughly every 2-3 years on average, with historical data showing about 19 such 10%+ corrections in the last 16 years (average depth ~14%) and 8 bear markets in 25 years (average depth 38.5%, lasting ~246 days to bottom). Below is a curated table of key notable pullback periods, primarily bear markets (>20% decline), compiled from reliable historical analyses. I've included peak-to-trough timelines, percentage drawdowns, durations to bottom, and major triggers where known. For brevity, this focuses on the most impactful; smaller 10-20% corrections (e.g., mid-2018 global trade tensions or late-2021 FII outflows) occur annually but are less transformative. P...

How to Evaluate Any Company’s Cash Flow - 2 examples

 How to Systematically Evaluate Any Company’s Cash Flow When you open a company’s cash flow statement: Start with “Cash from Operations” trend  – increasing or erratic? Compare “Profit from Operations” vs. “CFO”  – ideally CFO ≥ 80% of profit. Look at Working Capital Changes  – consistent negatives mean blocked cash. Review Investing Cash Flow  – negative = expansion, but ensure it’s not draining liquidity. Check Financing Cash Flow  – frequent borrowings/dividends indicate stress or dilution. See Net Cash Flow trend  – positive or consistently improving is ideal. _____________ đź§© 1. The Structure of a Cash Flow Statement It has three key sections: Cash Flow from Operating Activities (CFO): Cash actually generated from the core business — selling goods, collecting receivables, paying suppliers, taxes, etc. It reflects the health and sustainability of business operations. Cash Flow from Investing Activities (CFI): Cash spent or gained...

Gold - a hedge for equity volatility for an investor

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  Years when gold would have hedged  volatility for an investor having a portfolio mainly of stocks 2007 → 2008–2011 (especially 2007 and 2010–2011): Big gains in gold as global financial stress built and then crashed (2007 jump, very large gains 2010→2011). 2020 (COVID crash) → 2021–2023 (and 2024→2025 spike): Strong gold gains around the COVID shock (2020) and continued large increases into 2023–2025 — a clear hedge during pandemic/inflation/geo-political uncertainty. Earlier pockets (2002, 2005): Noticeable positive jumps (useful in some regional/global stress periods). Numbers (year → YoY % gain in your price series) 2025: +74.1% (from 2024 → 2025, partial year) 2007: +54.3% (2006→2007 rise shown in series) 2011: +42.7% 2020: +38.1% 2010: +27.6% 2023: +24.0% 2005, 2012, 2024, 2002: ~+16% to +20% (These are taken directly from the prices on your image.) Interpretation for the two markets a) Indian stock market: Gold was a very effective hedge in th...

Credible financial institutions for stock market and gold forecast

  cat A ). Conservative / Cautionary Citi Barclays Deutsche Bank Credit Suisse (now UBS) BNP Paribas Societe Generale Bank of America (BofA); cat B) . Bullish / Aggressive Jefferies Macquarie Group Nomura RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered Goldman Sachs; cat C) . Balanced / Context-Sensitive UBS HSBC Global Research Morgan Stanley JP Morgan Bloomberg Reuters World Gold Council

To evaluate the US market dependence of a company. case of Emcure

 used AI tools for this search. Emcure Pharmaceuticals' USA Market Dependency – Summary Emcure Pharmaceuticals, an Indian pharma company, earns a notable share of its revenue from international markets, with the USA (part of North America) contributing significantly. In FY24 (ending March 2024), 13.94% of its revenue came from North America, up from 12.19% in FY23 and 11.60% in FY22. Overall, international sales made up 51.72% of FY24 revenue, showing a strong global presence. Only Europe (21.38%) and North America (13.94%) exceed 5% of total revenue outside India. The company supports its US operations with USFDA-approved facilities and 102 Drug Master Files (DMFs), focusing on generics, injectables, and biosimilars. Revenue by Region (₹ Cr / % of Total Revenue) FY22 : India – 3,204.67 / 54.73%, North America – 679.45 / 11.60% FY23 : India – 3,181.82 / 53.16%, North America – 729.42 / 12.19% FY24 : India – 3,214.90 / 48.28%, North America – 927.91 / 13.94% Key Points Gr...